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Thread: SP+ rankings - Sun Belt

  1. Default Re: SP+ rankings - Sun Belt

    Quote Originally Posted by EAGLEMAN View Post
    The only GS losses are to #3, #10 and #37 and we are ranked behind a 2-6 Tulsa. Smh.
    To be fair, Tulsa's schedule is ridiculous:

    @ Michigan State (4-4) - L 7-28
    @ San Jose State (4-5) - W 34-16
    vs Oklahoma State (6-3) - L 21-40
    vs Wyoming (6-2) - W 24-21
    @ SMU (8-1) - L 37-43
    vs Navy (7-1) - L 17-45
    @ Cincinnati (7-1) - L 13-24
    vs Memphis (8-1) - L 41-42
    @ Tulane (6-3) - L 26-38

    That's 7 of 9 opponents that are already bowl eligible, and they play UCF this week.

  2. #62

    Default Re: SP+ rankings - Sun Belt

    Quote Originally Posted by Klak View Post
    To be fair, Tulsa's schedule is ridiculous:

    @ Michigan State (4-4) - L 7-28
    @ San Jose State (4-5) - W 34-16
    vs Oklahoma State (6-3) - L 21-40
    vs Wyoming (6-2) - W 24-21
    @ SMU (8-1) - L 37-43
    vs Navy (7-1) - L 17-45
    @ Cincinnati (7-1) - L 13-24
    vs Memphis (8-1) - L 41-42
    @ Tulane (6-3) - L 26-38

    That's 7 of 9 opponents that are already bowl eligible, and they play UCF this week.
    Navy cracked the top 25, AAC now has 4 teams in top 25.

  3. #63

    Default Re: SP+ rankings - Sun Belt

    FPI rankings -

    4. LSU
    20. Minnesota
    47. App State
    52. Louisiana
    83. Ark State
    86. GS
    94. Ga State
    100. Troy
    108. Coastal Carolina
    115. ULM
    117. Texas State
    123. NMSU
    126. South Bama

    Remaining games win probability -

    @Troy 52.15
    ULM 78.6%
    @ Ark St 40.2%
    GagSt 60.8%

    Definitely trending in the right direction the last few weeks. This weeks Troy game is big.

  4. #64

    Default Re: SP+ rankings - Sun Belt

    SP+ doesn't give us great chances on the road -


  5. Default Re: SP+ rankings - Sun Belt

    Quote Originally Posted by PowerEagle View Post
    SP+ doesn't give us great chances on the road -

    How much weight is given to previous results? The GS team that played S Alabama and ULL is not the same team that beat Appy.

  6. #66

    Default Re: SP+ rankings - Sun Belt

    Quote Originally Posted by TCM View Post
    How much weight is given to previous results? The GS team that played S Alabama and ULL is not the same team that beat Appy.
    I think a good bit. Klak or eaglewraith can probably get into the details better, but the numbers used here are based on Bill Connelly's SP+ rankings, which calculates efficiency numbers for each teams offense, defense and special teams, and weights them against their upcoming opponents. Probably explains why there is so much uncertainty when you get 3-4 weeks out, because the numbers know how volatile our play has been thus far this season.

  7. #67
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    Default Re: SP+ rankings - Sun Belt

    Quote Originally Posted by PowerEagle View Post
    I think a good bit. Klak or eaglewraith can probably get into the details better, but the numbers used here are based on Bill Connelly's SP+ rankings, which calculates efficiency numbers for each teams offense, defense and special teams, and weights them against their upcoming opponents. Probably explains why there is so much uncertainty when you get 3-4 weeks out, because the numbers know how volatile our play has been thus far this season.
    Seeing as how we're 8 games in, the data used in the predictive win probabilities is based on performance against our opponents this year. Last year's results are still in there a little bit, but the weighting is much lower than it is in the early part of the season.

    Yes, we may not be the same team we were several games ago, but the models don't swing back and forth on one performance. You have to show continued substantial improvement for those numbers to shift. SP+ is also per play based, and we had some really bad performances earlier in the season. We're definitely getting better, but it's a lot harder to bring an average up than it is to bring it down. We'll also see what happens to teams like Gast as they play App and us...the only teams in the conference really playing defense this year.

    A lot of the low predictions are based on the fact the offenses we're getting ready to play are doing pretty well YPP wise, although our defense is doing well in its own right. If our offensive YPP numbers keep coming up, you'll see those percentages trend toward us.

    The biggest swing in probability has been the chances of us being bowl eligible and we're now one game away from that happening.


  8. #68

    Default Re: SP+ rankings - Sun Belt

    At worst we split the next 4.
    Dr. Tredell Dorsey, Esq., Black Belt, and motivational speaker

  9. Default Re: SP+ rankings - Sun Belt

    Quote Originally Posted by garns 4 View Post
    Navy cracked the top 25, AAC now has 4 teams in top 25.
    This is why App never had a shot at the Cotton Bowl.

  10. #70

    Default Re: SP+ rankings - Sun Belt

    Quote Originally Posted by eaglewraith View Post
    Seeing as how we're 8 games in, the data used in the predictive win probabilities is based on performance against our opponents this year. Last year's results are still in there a little bit, but the weighting is much lower than it is in the early part of the season.

    Yes, we may not be the same team we were several games ago, but the models don't swing back and forth on one performance. You have to show continued substantial improvement for those numbers to shift. SP+ is also per play based, and we had some really bad performances earlier in the season. We're definitely getting better, but it's a lot harder to bring an average up than it is to bring it down. We'll also see what happens to teams like Gast as they play App and us...the only teams in the conference really playing defense this year.

    A lot of the low predictions are based on the fact the offenses we're getting ready to play are doing pretty well YPP wise, although our defense is doing well in its own right. If our offensive YPP numbers keep coming up, you'll see those percentages trend toward us.

    The biggest swing in probability has been the chances of us being bowl eligible and we're now one game away from that happening.
    How does it differ from ESPN FPI/efficiency?

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