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Thread: Minnesota Score Prediction Thread

  1. #181
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    Default Re: Minnesota Score Prediction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by KJ Eagle View Post
    If picking up a loose ball clean is not repeatable as you call it, how did we do it TWICE IN ONE GAME?

    Look, we're arguing semantics at this point. The issue that I have had all along is that calling something a fluke discounts what our players did to make those great plays. It's not like it was a Hail Mary that dropped through the outstretched hands of half a dozen players to fall into the belly of a receiver on his back in the endzone like the Flutie play. That was a fluke. A forced fumble, scoop and score and a blocked FG, scoop and score with that many cut backs and through that many opposing players are exceptional plays by our defense/special teams and should not be negated because a few of our fans are pissed off that we lost. We did enough bad things in that game to point at. We should not be negating the good plays just to make ourselves feel worse. I don't get their point of saying things like "we're lucky they didn't beat us by 50".

    As an amazing bald genius once said, FIDO!
    Because recovered fumbles are 50/50 at best. Recovered fumbles run back for touchdowns are even less likely. The fact that two of them occurred in the same game is highly unlikely.

    Scoop and scores by their nature are fluky. It's what we pointed out to stAte fans in 2016 when they prided themselves on their defense that was either going to get a turnover/score on a turnover or just let you score quick. It's not a sustainable way to operate on defense, because it's unreliable.

    Yes, what we did to create the fumbles is repeatable. But what happened after the fumbles is not. You can't rely on the ball to bounce the same way each time. Just like we can't rely on having 7 fumbles in a game and only losing one of them. Eventually law of averages will bite you.

    With our "insane" TO margin last year, we were still only +7 over what our expected margin was, so we weren't too far out of bounds. That would have still put us at +15 which is still really good and better than what we've done in most years. That means that we were indeed somewhat lucky last year.

    I understand that the reason we were in position to win the game was because of those 2 plays. It definitely wasn't because of the offense which only ran 12 plays and generated 14 yards in the second half. We can't rely on 2 defensive scores like what happened against Minnesota though. In fact, how many times has that even occurred in our history? That should tell you how much of a fluke it is. However, 5 sacks and 11 TFLs is not a fluke. If we do that every game for the rest of the year teams are gonna have a hard time scoring on us and we'll generate more turnovers. If we get more defensive scores, then that's great. It just makes it that much easier to win.


  2. #182
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    Default Re: Minnesota Score Prediction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by pete4256 View Post
    I would be inclined to call both of them "flukes," whatever that means. BUT you also have to attribute those plays partly to our talent. How many of us thought Bama's FG block and score in 2011 was a fluke? None of us. We just saw ourselves get blown up on that play by "superior talent."

    There aren't too many non-elite programs who have a guy like Brinson picking up blocked FGs and returning them. His talent with the ball in his hands is unreal. He's had multiple INTs and (maybe) fumble recoveries on which I've seen him do similar things, as well as leaping would-be tacklers.

    True story: when he picked up that ball Saturday, my immediate thought was, "That's Brinson! He might score!" This was before he made all those moves.

    Anyway, we're good enough to make our share of those plays. Too bad they weren't enough Saturday.
    Wait, I thought it "randomly" fell in his hands? Right Gatalac?
    Anything worth shooting is worth shooting twice. Ammo is cheap. Life is expensive

  3. #183

    Default Re: Minnesota Score Prediction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by KJ Eagle View Post
    Wait, I thought it "randomly" fell in his hands? Right Gatalac?
    I'd rather be lucky than good. And the harder I work, the luckier I get.
    Thanks, Rastabot!
    www.247sports.com/porkchops

  4. #184
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    Default Re: Minnesota Score Prediction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by pete4256 View Post
    I'd rather be lucky than good. And the harder I work, the luckier I get.
    Preach on Brother!
    Anything worth shooting is worth shooting twice. Ammo is cheap. Life is expensive

  5. #185

    Default Re: Minnesota Score Prediction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by pete4256 View Post
    I would be inclined to call both of them "flukes," whatever that means. BUT you also have to attribute those plays partly to our talent. How many of us thought Bama's FG block and score in 2011 was a fluke? None of us. We just saw ourselves get blown up on that play by "superior talent."

    There aren't too many non-elite programs who have a guy like Brinson picking up blocked FGs and returning them. His talent with the ball in his hands is unreal. He's had multiple INTs and (maybe) fumble recoveries on which I've seen him do similar things, as well as leaping would-be tacklers.

    True story: when he picked up that ball Saturday, my immediate thought was, "That's Brinson! He might score!" This was before he made all those moves.

    Anyway, we're good enough to make our share of those plays. Too bad they weren't enough Saturday.
    I think it definitely holds that the more pressure you bring, the more sacks you’ll get, ergo the better chance to force fumbles in the pocket > more opportunities to recover fumbles > more chances to scoop and score. Also, the better athletes you have on the field, the better chance to do something dramatic if the ball does happen to bounce into your hands.

    I think you can be ‘good’ at bringing pressure and getting sacks, perhaps even causing fumbles, but I don’t know if anyone is prepared to suggest that a team can be ‘good’ at turning a pass play into 6 points the other way in the manner above. Likewise, I’ve never heard a team described as being ‘good’ at blocking field goals and taking them to the house.

    Regardless, both of those guys made heads up, hustling plays when the opportunity presented itself.
    Sincerely,
    Irwin M. Fletcher

    P.S.: Have a nice day!

  6. #186
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    Default Re: Minnesota Score Prediction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by GATAlac El Dorado View Post
    I think it definitely holds that the more pressure you bring, the more sacks you’ll get, ergo the better chance to force fumbles in the pocket > more opportunities to recover fumbles > more chances to scoop and score. Also, the better athletes you have on the field, the better chance to do something dramatic if the ball does happen to bounce into your hands.

    I think you can be ‘good’ at bringing pressure and getting sacks, perhaps even causing fumbles, but I don’t know if anyone is prepared to suggest that a team can be ‘good’ at turning a pass play into 6 points the other way in the manner above. Likewise, I’ve never heard a team described as being ‘good’ at blocking field goals and taking them to the house.

    Regardless, both of those guys made heads up, hustling plays when the opportunity presented itself.
    This exactly. They did what they were supposed to do and made great things happen. But we were lucky that the result came out the way it did. That's why people preach process, not results.

    Even if they get tackled short of scores in both cases they were still really great heads up plays and everyone did exactly what they're supposed to do.


  7. #187
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    Default Re: Minnesota Score Prediction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by eaglewraith View Post
    We can't rely on 2 defensive scores like what happened against Minnesota though. In fact, how many times has that even occurred in our history?
    I'll answer my own question since the only thing that's happening now is petty passive aggressive responses elsewhere.

    Out of data for 475 games, we've had 3 non-offensive TDs in in 3 games and 2 non-offensive TDs in 8 games. That's 11 out of 475 games, or 2.3%.

    My bigger focus is on the havok created by the defense in terms of sacks, TFLs, and turnovers. If we keep doing that, we'll see a lot of good things happen for us, even if we don't have another scoop and score this year.


  8. #188
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    Default Re: Minnesota Score Prediction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Eskimojoe View Post

    Only idiots that have never played the game say this stuff. Because they simply don’t understand. “We gave it to you!!!!!”
    Just curious... did you play in HS or college?

  9. #189

    Default Re: Minnesota Score Prediction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by KJ Eagle View Post
    Wait, I thought it "randomly" fell in his hands? Right Gatalac?
    Naw, man. It played out just like we drew it up!
    Sincerely,
    Irwin M. Fletcher

    P.S.: Have a nice day!

  10. Default Re: Minnesota Score Prediction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by eaglewraith View Post
    I'll answer my own question since the only thing that's happening now is petty passive aggressive responses elsewhere.

    Out of data for 475 games, we've had 3 non-offensive TDs in in 3 games and 2 non-offensive TDs in 8 games. That's 11 out of 475 games, or 2.3%.

    My bigger focus is on the havok created by the defense in terms of sacks, TFLs, and turnovers. If we keep doing that, we'll see a lot of good things happen for us, even if we don't have another scoop and score this year.
    The defense is playing great most of the time now.....

    I just don’t understand the strategy we used on the final Minn drive... why didn’t we keep doing the same stuff? A prevent defense? Seriously?

    Absolutely handed them the last drive.

    should have killed them at several points on that drive. and of course, the 12 men on the field again.

    Very frustrating loss.

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